临床荟萃 ›› 2025, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (11): 978-987.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-583X.2025.11.003

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

De Ritis比值与卒中患者28 d病死率的关联:一项MIMIC-Ⅳ数据库分析

任德志1,2, 徐斯瑶1,2, 王帅3, 段军2()   

  1. 1.中日友好医院(中日友好临床医学研究所)/北京协和医学院/中国医学科学院,北京 100029
    2.中日友好医院 重症医学科,北京 100029
    3.上海交通大学医学院附属同仁医院 急诊医学科,上海 200336
  • 收稿日期:2025-09-23 出版日期:2025-11-20 发布日期:2025-12-02
  • 通讯作者: 段军 E-mail:13691362130@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    中日友好医院横向课题——针灸干预对脓毒症患者中枢神经系统调控的作用评估(2025-KY-161-1)

Association between the De Ritis ratio and 28-day mortality in patients with cerebrovascular accident: A MIMIC-Ⅳ database analysis

Ren Dezhi1,2, Xu Siyao1,2, Wang Shuai3, Duan Jun2()   

  1. 1. China-Japan Friendship Hospital (Institute of Clinical Medical Sciences), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100029,China
    2. Department of Critical Care Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing 100029,China
    3. Department of Emergency, Tongren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200336, China
  • Received:2025-09-23 Online:2025-11-20 Published:2025-12-02
  • Contact: Duan Jun E-mail:13691362130@163.com

摘要:

目的 探究天冬氨酸转氨酶/丙氨酸转氨酶(De Ritis比值)在脑卒中患者中28 d病死率的影响关联,并分析合并不同疾病后其具体预测价值。方法 采用回顾性队列研究提取MIMIC-Ⅳ数据库(2008-2019年)中6 165例脑卒中患者(ICD编码:I60/I63/I69),经缺失值筛选后最终纳入1 674例。缺失数据采用均值插补,缺失率>20%的变量被剔除。通过LASSO回归筛选变量,建立多变量Cox比例风险模型(含限制性立方样条函数)评估De Ritis比值与病死率的关系,并调整SOFA/APACHE-Ⅱ评分、器官支持及生物标志物等混杂因素。模型性能通过ROC-AUC和校准度验证,并预设亚组分析检验合并症的修饰效应。结果 De Ritis ratio是28 d病死率的独立预测因子。Kaplan-Meier分析表明,De Ritis最高组(Q4)生存率显著低于其他组(P<0.01)。单因素Cox回归证实,随De Ritis升高,死亡风险递增,其中Q3组HR=2.073(95%CI: 1.477~2.91, P<0.01),Q4组HR=2.066(95%CI: 1.452~2.939, P<0.01)。多因素模型(AUC=0.764)进一步验证其独立性。非线性分析揭示关键转折点(De Ritis=2):比值≤2时死亡风险随比值上升而增加,>2时影响不确定性升高。决策曲线证实其在广泛阈值概率具有临床净效益。亚组分析提示,该比值对高龄、无急性肾损伤/肝硬化/冠心病患者的预测价值更显著。结论 De Ritis比值是一种潜在的、有前景的预后指标,可用于评估脑卒中患者的死亡风险,为临床医生提供更准确的预后信息,从而帮助优化治疗策略,改善患者预后。

关键词: 卒中, De Ritis比值, MIMIC-Ⅳ数据库

Abstract:

Objective To evaluate the association between the aspartate transaminase (AST)/alanine transaminase (ALT) (De Ritis) ratio and 28-day mortality in patients with cerebrovascular accident (stroke) and to assess its predictive value across clinical subgroups. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study using the MIMICIV database (2008-2019). From 6, 165 stroke admissions identified by ICD codes I60, I63, and I69, 1, 674 patients were retained after excluding cases with excessive missing data. Missing values were imputed by mean substitution; variables with >20% missingness were excluded. Candidate predictors were selected using LASSO regression. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model-including restricted cubic splines to evaluate nonlinearity-was used to estimate the association between the De Ritis ratio and 28-day mortality, adjusting for potential confounders such as Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA)/Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) scores, organ support measures, and relevant biomarkers. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed using ROC-AUC and calibration plots. Preplanned subgroup analyses explored effect modification by comorbidities. Results The De Ritis ratio was an independent predictor of 28-day mortality. KaplanMeier analysis showed significantly lower survival in the highest quartile (Q4) compared with lower quartiles (P<0.01). In univariate Cox models, mortality risk increased with higher De Ritis quartiles (Q3: HR=2.073, 95%CI: 1.477-2.91; Q4: HR=2.066, 95%CI: 1.452-2.939; both P<0.01). The multivariable model retained the De Ritis ratio as an independent predictor and achieved an AUC of 0.764. Restricted cubic spline analysis identified an inflection point at a De Ritis ratio of approximately 2: Risk increased with rising ratio up to 2, while the relationship beyond 2 was less consistent. Decision curve analysis demonstrated clinical net benefit across a wide range of threshold probabilities. Subgroup analyses indicated stronger predictive value in older patients and in those without acute kidney injury, cirrhosis, or coronary artery disease. Conclusion The De Ritis (AST/ALT) ratio is a promising prognostic biomarker for stroke. It may help clinicians better estimate shortterm mortality risk, inform treatment decisions, and ultimately improve patient outcomes.

Key words: stroke, De Ritis ratio, MIMIC-Ⅳ database

中图分类号: