临床荟萃 ›› 2025, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (8): 698-704.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-583X.2025.08.005

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

血流感染合并脓毒症患者预后危险因素及其预测价值分析

庄蕙萃1, 郭皓2(), 李贤2, 崔东升2   

  1. 1.青岛市胶州中心医院 重症医学科,山东 青岛 266000
    2.邯郸市中心医院 重症医学科,河北 邯郸 056001
  • 收稿日期:2025-04-24 出版日期:2025-08-20 发布日期:2025-09-05
  • 通讯作者: 郭皓 E-mail:guohao1974@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    河北省医学科学研究课题——超多重PCR技术与肝素结合蛋白在颅脑术后颅内感染早期诊断中的价值(20231979)

Analysis of prognostic risk factors and predictive value in patients with bloodstream infection complicated with sepsis

Zhuang Huicui1, Guo Hao2(), Li Xian2, Cui Dongsheng2   

  1. 1. Department of Critical Care Medicine, Jiaozhou Central Hospital of Qingdao, Qingdao 266000, China
    2. Department of Critical Care Medicine, Handan Central Hospital, Handan 056001, China
  • Received:2025-04-24 Online:2025-08-20 Published:2025-09-05
  • Contact: Guo Hao E-mail:guohao1974@163.com

摘要:

目的 分析重症监护病房(intensive care unit,ICU)成人血流感染(bloodstream infections,BSI)合并脓毒症患者死亡的危险因素及预测价值。方法 回顾性分析2020年10月-2024年10月邯郸市中心医院ICU确诊为BSI合并脓毒症的患者,同时收集其24 h内生命体征、实验室参数、器官功能障碍评分及治疗情况,采用多因素logistic分析影响其28 d病死率的危险因素。应用受试者工作特征曲线, 分析独立危险因素对28 d病死率的预测价值。结果 4年内ICU收治的成人BSI合并脓毒症患者共162例,男性92例,女性70例,28 d死亡91例。单因素分析显示:年龄、 心率、乳酸、D-二聚体、肌酐、平均动脉压、氧合指数、白细胞计数、血小板计数、ICU获得性BSI比例、序贯器官衰竭评估(sequential organ failure assessment,SOFA)评分、急性生理与慢性健康评分(acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ,APACHEⅡ)、改良危重症营养风险(modified nutrition risk in the critically ill,mNUTRIC)评分及脓毒症相关性凝血功能障碍(sepsis-induced coagulopathy,SIC)评分、机械通气的比例、深静脉置管的比例、肾脏替代治疗的比例、使用血管活性药物>24 h是影响其28 d病死率的危险因素(P<0.05)。多因素logistic分析显示,年龄(OR=1.070,95%CI为1.019~1.123,P=0.006)、SOFA评分(1.301,95%CI为1.002~1.689,P=0.049)、APACHEⅡ评分(OR =1.179,95%CI为1.003~1.385,P=0.046)、使用血管活性药物>24 h(OR=4.125,95%CI为1.321~12.878,P=0.015)、mNUTRIC评分(OR=1.105,95%CI为1.007~1.206,P=0.014)、氧合指数(OR=0.994,95%CI为0.989~1.000, P =0.044)、白细胞计数(OR=0.940,95%CI为0.897~0.984,P=0.009)是BSI合并脓毒症患者28 d病死率独立影响因素。受试者工作特征曲线显示,年龄、SOFA评分、APACHE Ⅱ评分、mNUTRIC评分、使用血管活性药物>24 h的曲线下面积分别为0.655、0.827、0.799、0.758、0.742,氧合指数及白细胞计数预测效能差,曲线下面积分别为0.330、0.405。结论 年龄、SOFA评分、APACHE Ⅱ评分、mNUTRIC评分及使用血管活性药物>24 h是BSI合并脓毒症患者28 d病死率的独立影响因素,在预测28 d死亡率上,SOFA评分优于APACHEⅡ评分。

关键词: 重症监护病房, 血流感染, 脓毒症, 流行病学, 预后

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the risk factors and predictive value of bloodstream infections (BSI) in adult sepsis patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods Adult sepsis patients with BSI admitted to the ICU of Handan Central Hospital from October 2020 to October 2024 were retrospectively analyzed. Vital signs, laboratory parameters, organ dysfunction score, and treatment status within 24 hours of admission were collected. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze risk factors for the 28-day mortality, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive value of independent risk factors. Results Among 162 adult sepsis patients with BSI (92 males, 70 females) admitted to the ICU over a 4-year period, 91 died within 28 days. Univariate analysis revealed significant correlation of 28-day mortality with age, heart rate (HR), lactate (Lac), D-dimer, creatinine (Cr), mean arterial pressure (MAP), partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2)/fraction of the inspired oxygen (FiO2) ratio (P/F), white blood cell count (WBC), platelet count (PLT), ICU-acquired BSI proportion, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ (APACHEⅡ) score, modified Nutrition Risk in Critically Ill (mNUTRIC) score, sepsis-induced coagulopathy (SIC) score, the proportion of mechanical ventilation rate, deep vein catheterization rate, renal replacement therapy rate, and the use of vasoactive drug use >24 hours (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression identified that age (OR=1.070,95%CI:1.019-1.123,P=0.006), SOFA score (OR=1.301, 95%CI: 1.002-1.689, P=0.049), APACHE Ⅱ score (OR=1.179, 95%CI: 1.003-1.385, P=0.046), use of vasoactive drugs>24 hours (OR=4.125, 95%CI: 1.321-12.878, P=0.015), mNUTRIC score (OR=1.105, 95%CI: 1.007-1.206, P=0.014), P/F (OR=0.994, 95%CI: 0.989-1.000, P=0.044), and WBC (OR=0.940, 95%CI: 0.897-0.984, P=0.009) were independent prognostic factors for the 28-day mortality. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of age, SOFA score, APACHEⅡ score, mNUTRIC score, P/F, WBC and using vasoactive drugs > 24 h in predicting the 28-day mortality was 0.655, 0.827, 0.799, 0.758, 0.330, 0.405 and 0.742, respectively, P/F and WBC had poor predictive performance. Conclusion Age, SOFA score, APACHEⅡ score, mNUTRIC score, and use of vasoactive drug use >24 hours are independent predictors of 28-day mortality in sepsis patients with BSI. The SOFA score demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to the APACHEⅡ score in predicting the 28-day mortality.

Key words: intensive care unit, bloodstream infection, sepsis, epidemiology, prognosis

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